بررسی اجمالی تحلیلی جفت ارزهای اصلی در 2025.02.27

The EUR/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.0512
• قبلی بستن: 1.0484
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.26 %

The euro fell slightly yesterday to just under $1.049, retreating from the one-month high reached on February 24, as concerns emerged over the outlook for European defense spending. Germany’s future chancellor Friedrich Merz ruled out the possibility of an imminent reform of borrowing limits and said it was too early to know whether the outgoing parliament could approve a major increase in military spending. Meanwhile, economic data showed German consumer sentiment unexpectedly weakened in March, while French morale improved to a four-month high in February. Investors also remained cautious ahead of next week’s ECB meeting, where the bank is expected to cut interest rates for the fifth consecutive time.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.0460, 1.0409
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.0485, 1.0529, 1.0539

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The euro corrected to the support level of 1.0460, where we can consider buying with the aim to reach 1.0539. It is very important for buyers to hold 1.0460, otherwise, a breakdown of this level will open the price way to 1.0409, which will sharply increase the probability of the upward trend change.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.0409 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.2665
• قبلی بستن: 1.2676
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.08 %

In January 2025, UK car production fell to 17.7% year-on-year to 78,012 units. This is the 11th consecutive month of decline, driven by ongoing factory restructuring and slower-than-expected new models as manufacturers adjust to weaker demand in the UK and other key markets.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.2648, 1.2632, 1.2606, 1.2581, 1.2553
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.2704

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish. The British pound reached the key support zone at 1.2704, where buyers started to fix previously opened purchases. Currently, the prices have corrected to the EMA lines, with 2 demand zones below. Under such market conditions, buying can be sought from 1.2648 or 1.2632. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.2606 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 148.99
• قبلی بستن: 149.09
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.07 %

The yen remained near multi-month highs, supported by strong expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates this year after the inflation rate rose in the fourth quarter. Investors are now turning their attention to several key economic reports released on Friday, including industrial production, retail sales, and Tokyo inflation data, which could provide further insight into the Central Bank’s future monetary policy.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 148.86, 148.28, 147.32
• سطوح مقاومت: 149.90, 150.31, 150.75, 151.50, 152.32

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. After the captured liquidity below 148.86 was distributed to 149.90, the price expectedly flattened. Now, the accumulation of new liquidity is underway. Intraday bias remains with the bears, so with a high probability, the price will continue to decline to 148.28 and below. There are no optimal entry points for buying.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks above the resistance at 150.74, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 2915
• قبلی بستن: 2916
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.03 %

On Wednesday, President Trump brought confusion to the outlook for tariffs on Canada and Mexico, suggesting they would take effect on April 2 instead of the earlier March 4 deadline, and also proposed 25% “retaliatory” tariffs on cars and goods from the EU. Meanwhile, markets are keeping a close eye on upcoming US economic data, including the second estimate of Q4 GDP growth due out today and Friday’s PCE price data — the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation — for further clues on monetary policy. Recent weak US data has reinforced expectations of accelerated rate cuts.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 2891, 2867
• سطوح مقاومت: 2921, 2940, 2954

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish, but it is close to change. This is the third time in 2 days that gold is testing the priority change level, and each bounce from the level is weaker than the previous one. This indicates the seller’s pressure. We are watching the price reaction to the level. A breakdown and consolidation below will open the price to 2865, we can confidently look for sales. If the buyers react here again, we go back to buying up to 2921.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks below the support level of 2892, the downtrend will likely resume.