بررسی اجمالی تحلیلی جفت ارزهای اصلی در 2025.02.13

The EUR/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.0390
• قبلی بستن: 1.0382
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.21 %

The latest US CPI data reinforced expectations that the FOMC will take a cautious stance on rate cuts, in contrast to the European Central Bank’s more accommodative policy. The US Consumer Prices rose by 0.5% in January, the highest since August 2023 and exceeding expectations for a 0.3% increase. On an annualized basis, the figure unexpectedly rose to 3% from December’s 2.9%. Investors also kept a close eye on strained trade relations between the US and the EU as the European Union vowed to retaliate against US tariffs on European steel and aluminum. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen condemned the tariffs as “unjustified” and vowed to take tough retaliatory measures, while German Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned that Europe would respond “within the hour” if the measures were put into effect.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.0390, 1.0317, 1.0272
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.0451, 1.0520

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The euro has consolidated above the moving averages and above the level of priority change. Currently, the price is trying to test the resistance zone at 1.0451, but since the price has deviated strongly from the moving averages, it is not very relevant to buy here. It is better to use the EMAs lines or the support level of 1.0390 for buying.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.0317 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.2434
• قبلی بستن: 1.2446
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.09 %

The RICS survey of the UK residential property market showed that the house price balance, which reflects the difference between respondents reporting price rises and those reporting price falls, fell to 22% in January 2025 from 26% in December. This drop fell short of expectations, which predicted a slight increase to 27%. Despite this, the survey still indicates that overall house prices are trending upwards. A closer look at regional data reveals that house prices continue to rise across the UK. This will indirectly contribute to rising inflationary pressures.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.2442, 1.2396, 1.2335
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.2544

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish.  The price seeks to test the resistance level at 1.2544. It is better to consider buy trades from the EMAs lines or from the support level of 1.2442. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.2335 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 154.43
• قبلی بستن: 154.42
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: 0.0 %

The Japanese yen fell to 154 per dollar, hitting its lowest level in more than a week, as better-than-expected US Consumer Inflation data caused traders to dampen expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Markets are now pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate cut of only a quarter point this year, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress that the Central Bank is in no hurry to ease policy. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda did not give clear guidance on the future path of interest rates.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 153.35, 152.77, 151.62
• سطوح مقاومت: 154.33, 155.04, 155.52

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. The price corrected to the resistance level of 154.33, where sellers reacted. The price is expected to decline to the support level of 153.35. However, it should be noted that the price is in the buy side liquidity void area, and buyers may become active here.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks above the resistance at 155.52, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 2898
• قبلی بستن: 2901
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.10 %

The US inflation data showed solid inflationary trends, with all key indicators exceeding expectations. This reinforced the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on lowering interest rates, as it recently said there was no need for further cuts, which reduced the attractiveness of gold, which does not generate income.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 2871, 2834, 2807
• سطوح مقاومت: 2950, 3000

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Yesterday, gold corrected to the 2871 support level, where buyers showed a sharp reaction. Currently, there are no strong counter-resistance levels for gold, so further price growth to 2950 is expected. It is best to buy from the EMAs. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks below the support level of 2834, the downtrend will likely resume.