بررسی اجمالی تحلیلی جفت ارزهای اصلی در 2025.02.03

The EUR/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.0387
• قبلی بستن: 1.0357
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.29 %

The euro fell to $1.02, hitting the lowest level in three weeks, amid the strengthening of the US dollar after the White House denied reports of tariff postponement, confirming 25% levies on Mexico and Canada and 10% tariffs on China, scheduled for implementation on Saturday. The announcement pushed the dollar higher, reversing pressure from earlier reports of a March postponement and renewing expectations of higher inflation and a more hawkish Fed stance. In addition, Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on the Eurozone also had a negative impact on the Euro exchange rate.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.0239, 1.0178
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.0267, 1.0387, 1.0433

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend has changed to a downtrend. On Monday, the euro price opened with a strong gap down. Currently, the price is trading in the demand zone, and the resistance level 1.0267 keeps the price from rising. It is important for buyers not to let the price consolidate below 1.0239. The price is likely to flounder between these levels due to the uncertainty of the tariff policy towards the Eurozone. Selling here is not recommended, as the price has deviated strongly from the moving averages. 

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0433 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will be resumed with a high probability.

The GBP/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.2413
• قبلی بستن: 1.2390
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.18 %

The British pound fell to $1.22, hitting a near two-week low, as the US dollar continued to strengthen after President Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on key trading partners over the weekend. The tariffs, which include 25% duties on goods from Mexico and Canada and 10% on imports from China, have reignited fears of trade wars, a potential resurgence in inflation and slowing global growth. Meanwhile, the Bank of England will cut rates by 25 basis points in February 2025. However, stronger-than-expected economic data suggests that further rate cuts may not come as quickly.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.2272, 1.2229
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.2314, 1.2381

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair has changed to a downtrend. On Monday, the price opened with a strong gap down. The price is trading in the demand zone, and the resistance level at 1.2315 keeps the price from rising. It is important for buyers not to let the price consolidate below 1.2272. The price is likely to flounder between these levels due to the uncertainty of the tariff policy towards the Eurozone. Selling here is not recommended, as the price has deviated strongly from the moving averages. 

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks the support level at 1.2472 and consolidates below, the downtrend is very likely to be resumed.

The USD/JPY currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 154.21
• قبلی بستن: 155.19
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.63 %

The Japanese yen fell to 155.5 per US dollar on Monday, the second consecutive decline as the dollar rose after US President Donald Trump imposed massive tariffs on key trading partners, prompting traders to assess inflation risks. While the tariffs did not directly impact Japan, its economy, heavily reliant on exports and free trade, remains vulnerable to disruptions in global trade. 

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 154.93, 154.39, 153.14
• سطوح مقاومت: 156.02, 156.74, 157.18, 158.19

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. However, the price managed to consolidate above 154.93 and break the downtrend line on the impulse movement, which increases the probability of further price growth up to 156.02. Inside the day, it is recommended to look for buy deals after a pullback to the moving average lines. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

سناریوی جایگزین:

If the price breaks above the resistance at 156.74, the uptrend is likely to resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 2795
• قبلی بستن: 2800
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.17 %

Precious metals gave up early gains on Friday. They moved lower amid pressure to liquidate long positions after Reuters reported that President Trump would delay tariffs against Canada and Mexico until March 1. However, the report was later denied by the White House, which said President Trump would impose 25 percent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10 percent tariffs on Chinese goods on Saturday. Gold fell below $2,780 an ounce on Monday as a rising US dollar outweighed demand for safe-haven gold amid fears of a global trade war following the US tariff measures. 

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 2772, 2750, 2735
• سطوح مقاومت: 2796, 2790, 2817, 2850, 2900

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold corrected on the background of rising yields of government bonds. The price reached the support level 2772, where the buyers took the initiative. However, a strong supply zone was formed above 2796. This opens opportunities to sell from 2790 to 2796 but with confirmation. Don’t forget about the multi-week MACD divergence on the higher time frames. There are no optimal entry points for buying right now.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks below the support level of 2735, the downtrend is likely to resume.