بررسی اجمالی تحلیلی جفت ارزهای اصلی در 2025.01.29

The EUR/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.0489
• قبلی بستن: 1.0430
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.56 %

Today, market participants will keep a close eye on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks and the Central Bank’s inflation projections for hints on the timing of future rate cuts, especially after President Donald Trump’s call for an immediate reduction in borrowing costs. And tomorrow, the ECB will hold its monetary policy meeting, where further rate cuts are expected.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.0436, 1.0410, 1.0372, 1.0343, 1.0299, 1.0265, 1.0238, 1.0223
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.0456, 1.0516, 1.0537

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. The price declined to the demand zone below 1.0436 and formed a flat. Most likely the price will remain in a narrow range until the FOMC meeting. Under such market conditions, it is necessary to wait for the price to consolidate above 1.0456 to buy. This level may trigger a sharp sell-off, so it is important to evaluate the price reaction.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.0372 and consolidates below, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.2495
• قبلی بستن: 1.2442
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.43 %

The British pound fell to $1.244 from a three-week high following comments from US President Donald Trump about imposing more tariffs. Trump’s remarks that the tariffs would target sectors such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and steel raised fears of trade tensions, especially with Canada and Mexico, which contributed to the dollar’s strength. Meanwhile, markets focused on Central Bank policy, with the Federal Reserve expected to keep rates unchanged and the European Central Bank likely to cut rates by 25 basis points. In the UK, the Bank of England is expected to cut rates in February despite stronger than expected PMI data.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.2425, 1.2376, 1.2343, 1.2293, 1.2270,1.2229, 1.2158
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.2465, 1.2494

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish. Yesterday, the British pound declined to the support level of 1.2425, where after a liquidity test below, the price consolidated above the level. Currently, the price is aiming at the intermediate resistance level of 1.2465, where it is important to evaluate price action. A breakout of this level will resume the growth. If the sellers react at 1.2465, the price may drop sharply to 1.2400.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks the support level at 1.2293 and consolidates below, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 154.45
• قبلی بستن: 155.52
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.69 %

The minutes of the Bank of Japan’s December meeting showed that the Central Bank maintains a cautious stance on monetary policy adjustment, depending on inflation trends, wage growth and global economic risks. However, at its January meeting, the BOJ raised the discount rate and revised upward its inflation estimates, indicating the possibility of further rate hikes. 

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 154.93, 154.34
• سطوح مقاومت: 156.02, 156.74, 157.18, 158.19

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. It is very important for sellers to keep the price below 156.02, otherwise the downtrend will be jeopardized. Buyers have formed a demand zone below 154.93, and may react here. Therefore, it is better to consider selling after the breakdown of this level.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks above the resistance at 156.74, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 2741
• قبلی بستن: 2764
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.84 %

Gold prices traded around $2,765 per ounce on Wednesday, continuing a slight recovery from the previous session as uncertainty over US tariffs spurred demand for safe-haven gold. On Tuesday, the White House press secretary also confirmed that Trump still plans to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting February 1 and is considering new tariffs on China. Investors’ attention is now focused on the first Federal Reserve meeting of the year, where Fed officials are expected to leave interest rates unchanged today. Higher rates tend to reduce the attractiveness of gold, which does not generate income. Market attention will also be focused on how the Fed will respond to President Trump’s calls for further rate cuts.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 2752, 2735, 2717, 2703, 2690, 2666, 2655, 2636, 2622, 2603, 2570
• سطوح مقاومت: 2772, 2790

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Yesterday, buyers were able to defend their positions near the priority change level. Currently, the price seeks to test liquidity above 2772, but this level is not strong. Intraday, it is worth looking for buying from the moving averages. For selling, 2772 can be considered, but only if sellers react to the level.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks below the support level of 2735, the downtrend will likely resume.