بررسی اجمالی تحلیلی جفت ارزهای اصلی در 2025.01.28

The EUR/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.0480
• قبلی بستن: 1.0491
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.10 %

The European Central Bank is estimated to cut rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, which will be the fifth rate cut in this cycle. Investors will also be keeping a close eye on any signs of the Central Bank’s plans for this year, as markets anticipate possible further rate cuts in the coming months. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, while policymakers in Canada and Sweden are likely to continue easing monetary policy.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.0436, 1.0370, 1.0343, 1.0299, 1.0265, 1.0238, 1.0223
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.0462, 1.0516, 1.0537

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. Today, at the opening of trading, the price sharply declined below 1.0456 and reached the demand zone below 1.0436. It is very important for buyers here not to let the price fall further lower, as this could lead to a change of structure. Under these market conditions, buy trades can be sought from 1.0436, but provided that buyers take the initiative here and push the price back above 1.0456. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.0372 and consolidates below, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.2467
• قبلی بستن: 1.2498
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.25 %

The Bank of England is likely to cut rates by 25bps in February, although stronger PMI data for services and manufacturing suggest that it will not accelerate the pace of cuts. Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Finance Minister Rachel Reeves will meet with business leaders on Tuesday to announce pension sector reforms they hope will boost economic growth and investment.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.2425, 1.2376, 1.2343, 1.2293, 1.2270,1.2229, 1.2158
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.2494

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish. Today, at the opening, the Dollar Index sharply strengthened, which led to a decline in pound quotes. Currently, the price seeks to distribute liquidity below 1.2425, where it will be possible to look for buy trades provided the initiative. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks the support level at 1.2293 and consolidates below, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 155.68
• قبلی بستن: 154.41
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.82 %

The Japanese yen fell below 155.5 per dollar on Tuesday, retreating from six-week highs, as the dollar recovered after fresh tariff threats from US President Donald Trump. Trump unveiled plans to impose tariffs on imported microchips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and copper to boost domestic production. The yen also reversed gains from the previous session, when concerns over Chinese startup DeepSeek’s free open-source AI model challenging the dominance of US AI leaders triggered a decline in risk sentiment. Nevertheless, the yen remains supported by the hawkish monetary policy outlook of the Bank of Japan.   

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 154.93, 154.34
• سطوح مقاومت: 156.02, 156.74, 157.18, 158.19

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. The Japanese yen has formed a broadly volatile corridor in the range of 154.93–156.74. Yesterday, the price broke the lower boundary of the corridor, but the downward momentum quickly reversed once the price reached the liquidity zone below 154.39. Currently, the price is testing the balance of liquidity again. It is very important for sellers to keep the price below 156.02, otherwise the downtrend will be jeopardized.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks above the resistance at 156.74, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 2768
• قبلی بستن: 2741
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.98 %

The precious metal fell 1% in the previous session amid a broader market sell-off after Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek triggered a massive drop in tech stocks. Traders are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting, which begins today. With the Central Bank expected to keep interest rates unchanged, the focus will be on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech and how the Central Bank will respond to President Donald Trump’s calls for lower interest rates. Gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge could diminish if Trump’s policies, which are seen as inflationary, force the Fed to keep rates high.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 2735, 2717, 2703, 2690, 2666, 2655, 2636, 2622, 2603, 2570
• سطوح مقاومت: 2752, 2771, 2790

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish, but close to change. Yesterday, in the American session, the price reached the level of priority change. Buyers are trying to defend positions, but sellers’ pressure intraday prevails. At the opening of trading, gold tested the liquidity below 2735. Here, we can look for buying with the first target of 2752. A breakdown of 2735 may trigger a sharp sell-off.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks below the support level of 2735, the downtrend will likely resume.