بررسی اجمالی تحلیلی جفت ارزهای اصلی در 2025.01.27

The EUR/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.0416
• قبلی بستن: 1.0493
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.74 %

On Friday, the euro climbed towards $1.05, the highest in the last month, thanks to a weaker dollar after President Trump softened his stance on across-the-board tariffs and favored an immediate cut in interest rates. In addition, flash PMI indices for the Eurozone and Germany provided some optimism as private sector activity showed signs of recovery and manufacturing contraction eased. Meanwhile, the ECB is widely expected to cut its key deposit rate by 25 bps once again this week, following four cuts in 2024. Investors will also keep a close eye on any signals regarding the Central Bank’s plans for this year, as markets expect further rate cuts in the coming months.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.0458, 1.0436, 1.0370, 1.0343, 1.0299, 1.0265, 1.0238, 1.0223
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.0516, 1.0537

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. On Friday, the price reached the resistance level of 1.0515, where there was a partial fixation of previously opened buy positions. Today at the opening the price corrected to the support level of 1.0458, where buyers are trying to restore growth. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought from the levels of 1.0458 or 1.0436. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.0372 and consolidates below, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.2356
• قبلی بستن: 1.2480
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +1.00 %

The British pound rose above $1.24 after data showed that the UK economy performed better than expected in January. The services PMI rose slightly and the manufacturing PMI also improved, both beating projections. However, concerns still remain. New business orders fell sharply and employment fell for the fourth consecutive month due to rising costs. In addition, spending is expected to rise further with tax and wage increases in April. The Bank of England is likely to cut interest rates by 25bps in February, but data suggests it will not accelerate rate cuts. 

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.2399, 1.2376, 1.2343, 1.2293, 1.2270,1.2229, 1.2158
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.2494

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair has changed to an upward trend. It is recommended to consider support levels of 1.2399 or 1.2376 for buy deals, but with confirmation. The price going below 1.2376 is not desirable for buyers, because in such a scenario the price can quickly decline. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks the support level at 1.2293 and consolidates below, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 156.05
• قبلی بستن: 155.97
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.05 %

The Japanese yen strengthened to 155.6 per dollar on Monday, extending the gains of the previous two weeks after hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan. The BOJ raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.5% on Friday, the highest short-term borrowing cost in 16 years. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, however, gave no indication on the timing and pace of future rate hikes.   

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 154.93, 154.34
• سطوح مقاومت: 155.75, 156.74, 157.18, 158.19

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. The Japanese yen is forming a broadly volatile corridor in the range of 154.93–156.74. Inside the corridor the pressure of sellers prevails and there is a high probability that the price will continue to decline and the accumulated liquidity in this corridor will be distributed much lower. It is best to use moving averages for selling. There are no optimal entry points for buying now.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks above the resistance at 158.19, the uptrend will likely resume.if the price breaks above the resistance at 158.19, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 2754
• قبلی بستن: 2771
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.62 %

Gold fell below $2760 per ounce on Monday as investors prepare for the US Federal Reserve’s decision due this week. The Central Bank is expected to leave rates unchanged, marking the first pause in a cycle of rate cuts that began in September. However, market attention is likely to focus on how the Fed will react to comments from President Donald Trump, who has called for continued interest rate cuts. While gold is traditionally seen as a hedge against inflation, Trump’s policies are seen as inflationary, which could force the Fed to keep rates higher for longer, reducing gold’s appeal. 

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 2752, 2735, 2717, 2703, 2690, 2666, 2655, 2636, 2622, 2603, 2570
• سطوح مقاومت: 2773, 2790

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold corrected to the support level of 2752, where buyers took the initiative. Here, we can look for buy trades with the target up to 2773. It is important for buyers to keep the price above 2752. There are no optimal entry points for selling now.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks below the support level of 2735, the downtrend will likely resume.