主要货币对的分析概要 2025.01.30

The EUR/USD currency pair

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 1.0428
• 前一收盘价: 1.0421
• 过去一天的变化%: -0.07 %

The European Central Bank will hold a monetary policy meeting today. With a probability of almost 100% the ECB will cut the rate by 0.25% to 2.75%. The swaps market is discounting about 100 bps of rate cuts this year, with nearly 75 bps coming in the first half of the year. While President Lagarde may not want to make any preliminary promises at the press conference, she is likely to confirm market expectations for further rate cuts. Moreover, the Eurozone is likely to show sluggish GDP growth of less than 0.4% in 4Q24. This situation will put pressure on the European currency in the medium term, especially if Trump talks about tariffs against Europe again. It is important for traders to realize that the scenario of rate cuts is already embedded in the price, so do not expect a sharp fall at the time of publication of the news. However, in the medium term, the euro has no factors for strengthening against the US dollar.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 1.0410, 1.0372, 1.0343, 1.0299, 1.0265, 1.0238, 1.0223
• 阻力价位: 1.0429, 1.0456, 1.0516, 1.0537

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. However, intraday, the price shows signs of decline. With high probability, the price will test the level of priority change at 1.0372. Selling can be looked for from the resistance level of 1.0429. Buying should be considered only if the price consolidates above 1.0456.

选择场景:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.0372 and consolidates below, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 1.2436
• 前一收盘价: 1.2451
• 过去一天的变化%: +0.12 %

Yesterday, traders were digesting key monetary policy decisions of major central banks and assessing the UK economic outlook. The Fed, as expected, left rates unchanged and signaled a more cautious approach to further rate cuts. On the other hand, the ECB is expected to cut the benchmark interest rate once again by 25bps, while the Bank of Canada and the Swedish Riksbank also lowered borrowing costs by a quarter point. In the UK, the Bank of England is likely to cut rates by 25bp in February, although stronger data suggests it will not accelerate the pace of cuts. 

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 1.2423, 1.2400, 1.2376, 1.2343, 1.2293, 1.2270,1.2229, 1.2158
• 阻力价位: 1.2465, 1.2494

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish. Yesterday, the British pound declined to the support level of 1.2400, where the buyers took the initiative. Currently, the price is aiming at the resistance level of 1.2465, where it is important to evaluate price action. The breakout of this level will resume the growth. If the sellers react at 1.2465, the price may fall sharply to 1.2423 again.

选择场景:

if the price breaks the support level at 1.2293 and consolidates below, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 155.52
• 前一收盘价: 155.22
• 过去一天的变化%: -0.19 %

The Japanese yen strengthened to 154.5 per dollar on Thursday, marking the second straight session of gains as investors await comments from Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino later in the day. Earlier this month, Himino signaled a Central Bank interest rate hike on Jan. 24, prompting speculation that he would further emphasize a hawkish bias in his comments today. At its January meeting, the BOJ raised the discount rate and improved its inflation outlook, signaling a possible further rate hike.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 154.39, 153.14
• 阻力价位: 154.93, 156.02, 156.74, 157.18, 158.19

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. The Japanese yen continues to strengthen. Today, at the Asian session the price declined to the support level of 154.39, but the liquidity below this level is not enough to reverse the movement. Therefore, it is highly likely that the price will continue to decline to 153.14. For selling, you can use the moving averages or the resistance level at 154.93. There are no optimal entry points for buying.

选择场景:

 if the price breaks above the resistance at 156.74, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 2764
• 前一收盘价: 2755
• 过去一天的变化%: -0.32 %

Gold dipped below $2,750 an ounce on Wednesday after testing record highs of $2,780 earlier in the week as investors reassessed the Fed’s policy outlook following a largely expected rate hold. The US Central Bank gave hawkish signals by removing a message from its statement reflecting optimism that inflation is moving toward the 2% target, in addition to acknowledging that growth and labor conditions are resilient. On the other hand, dovish actions by other central banks supported bullion. The Bank of Canada stopped quantitative tightening and, along with the Swedish Riksbank, cut rates. ECB is also expected to cut rates today, and RBI and PBoC have also signaled rate cuts.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 2750, 2735, 2717, 2703, 2690, 2666, 2655, 2636, 2622, 2603, 2570
• 阻力价位: 2772, 2790

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Yesterday, buyers took the initiative from the support level of 2750. Currently, the price seeks to test the liquidity above 2772. Intraday, it is worth looking for buying from the moving averages. For sell deals, we can consider 2772, but only if sellers react to the level.

选择场景:

if the price breaks below the support level of 2735, the downtrend will likely resume.