主要貨幣對的分析概要 2025.02.07

The EUR/USD currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 1.0399
• 前一收盤價: 1.0399
• 過去一天的變化%: -0.15 %

Along with inflation remaining above the US Fed’s 2% target, an active labor market contributed to the FOMC’s decision to keep rates unchanged at the last meeting and made it clear that it is in no hurry to reduce borrowing costs further. Therefore, a strong labor market report today will support the US dollar, which will put pressure on risk assets such as EUR and GBP. If the report shows a sharp decline in jobs (worse than expected 156k), it will be a negative scenario for the US dollar, which will contribute to the strengthening of EUR .

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 1.0373, 1.0332, 1.0272, 1.0239, 1.0178
• 阻力價位: 1.0381, 1.0433

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish, but close to change. Currently, the euro is trading at the level of moving averages near the support zone. Buyers have formed 2 demand zones at once to provide a base for further growth. For buying, it is best to consider the support level of 1.0373 or 1.0332, but with confirmation. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

選擇場景:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0433 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 1.2504
• 前一收盤價: 1.2435
• 過去一天的變化%: -0.55 %

As expected, the Bank of England cut the benchmark bank rate by 25 bps to 4.5% in its February 2025 decision, marking the third rate cut since the beginning of the easing cycle last August. All nine representatives of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted in favor of the rate cut. The Bank maintained its stance that monetary policy easing this year will be gradual, as rising concerns about economic growth are exacerbated by volatile core service inflation. Nevertheless, the Bank has revised down its growth estimates for this year, indicating a dovish shift in the balance of risks between growth and appreciation in the near term. This situation contributed to the decline in the pound exchange rate.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 1.2383, 1.2335, 1.2270
• 阻力價位: 1.2468, 1.2505

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish. Yesterday, the price bounced sharply from the resistance zone above 1.2505 and the correction started. Buyers showed a reaction from 1.2383 and it is important that now the price does not fall below this level, as it can lead to a trend reversal. Intraday, it is better to focus on buying up to 1.2468. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

選擇場景:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.2335 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 152.56
• 前一收盤價: 151.44
• 過去一天的變化%: -0.74 %

The Japanese yen strengthened to 152 per dollar, reaching its highest level in almost two months, amid growing expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates this year. On Thursday, BOJ board spokesman Tamura said the Central Bank should raise the discount rate to at least 1 percent in the second half of fiscal 2025. The latest data also showed a 2.7% year-on-year increase in household spending in Japan, the first rise in five months and well above the 0.2% rise projections.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 151.12, 148.42
• 阻力價位: 152.76, 154.39, 155.04, 155.52

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. The price declined to the support level of 151.12, where the buyers took the initiative. There is a strong demand zone here. Moreover, the nearest resistance zone has no impact on the price. Given the MACD divergence, this increases the probability of a corrective move. Intraday buying can be considered with a target up to 152.76. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

選擇場景:

if the price breaks above the resistance at 155.52, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 2862
• 前一收盤價: 2856
• 過去一天的變化%: -0.21 %

Gold rose to $2,870 per ounce on Friday, rising again to record highs and hitting its sixth consecutive weekly high. The metal has repeatedly set new records this week, helped by accelerated Central Bank buying and rising safe-haven demand amid global trade tensions and economic uncertainty. President Trump has implemented plans to impose 10% duties on all Chinese imports, prompting Beijing to announce retaliatory tariffs on US energy products that will take effect next week. Adding to the uncertainty, Trump also suggested the US should take control of the Gaza Strip to rebuild.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 2834, 2807
• 阻力價位: 2870, 2900

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. But conditions for corrective movement are beginning to form. First, it is the MACD divergence on the higher timeframes. Second, it is the sellers’ reaction to the resistance zone above 2870. This level can be considered for selling, but with a short stop loss. Buying should be considered only after the price consolidates above 2870.

選擇場景:

if the price breaks below the support level of 2772, the downtrend will likely resume.