主要貨幣對的分析概要 2025.01.24

The EUR/USD currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 1.0413
• 前一收盤價: 1.0413
• 過去一天的變化%: 0 %

On Thursday, the euro initially declined amid dovish comments from ECB Governing Council representative Escriva, who said that the ECB is still pursuing a restrictive policy and should shift to a more neutral stance. In the near term, EUR gains appear limited as the ECB is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps at next Thursday’s meeting. Swaps rate the odds of a 25bp ECB rate cut at the next meeting on January 30 at 97%.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 1.0410, 1.0370, 1.0343, 1.0299, 1.0265, 1.0238, 1.0223
• 阻力價位: 1.0458, 1.0516

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. After the liquidity test below 1.0392, the captured liquidity was distributed above 1.0458. There is also a large accumulation of liquidity here, so sellers’ reaction is possible. However, the support level at 1.0436 acts as a breaker and may prevent the price from falling. Under such market conditions it is necessary to evaluate the reaction of the price at 1.0436. If on the test of the level the buyers will show initiative, it is worth to look for buy deals with the target to 1.0516. If the level of 1.0436 is broken below, taking into account MACD divergence, we should switch to selling with the target to 1.0410 or 1.0370.

選擇場景:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.0342 and consolidates below, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 1.2312
• 前一收盤價: 1.2354
• 過去一天的變化%: +0.34 %

According to the British Retail Consortium (BRC), Consumer Confidence in the British economy hit a new low amid recession fears. In addition, the UK’s budget deficit in December was larger than expected, with net public sector borrowing reaching GBP17.8 billion ($22 billion), more than GBP10 billion higher than a year earlier. Looking ahead, concerns about a weakening UK economy and further rate cuts by the Bank of England point to a negative outlook for the pound, as markets estimate the likelihood of a rate cut this year at around 65 basis points.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 1.2376, 1.2343, 1.2293, 1.2270,1.2229, 1.2158
• 阻力價位: 1.2344, 1.2376, 1.2507

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair has changed to an upward trend. The price has consolidated above the priority change level and is now trading in the supply zone. It is recommended to consider support levels of 1.2376 or 1.2343 for buying, but with confirmation. A price move below 1.2343 is not desirable for buyers, as in such a scenario the captured liquidity above 1.2376 will start to distribute lower and the price may decline quickly.

選擇場景:

if the price breaks the support level at 1.2229 and consolidates below, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 156.45
• 前一收盤價: 156.05
• 過去一天的變化%: -0.25 %

The Japanese yen strengthened to 155 per dollar on Friday after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.5%, in line with expectations. The move marked the highest cost of short-term borrowing in 16 years. The Central Bank also estimated that inflation will reach its 2% target in the second half of the prognosis period, indicating that further rate hikes are possible. In addition, the BOJ expressed confidence that businesses will offer significant wage increases during wage negotiations this spring. 

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 154.93, 154.34
• 阻力價位: 155.75, 156.74, 157.18, 158.19

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. After the liquidity test above 156.74, the price declined expectedly. Of course, the position of the Bank of Japan also contributed to it. Currently, it is important for sellers to keep the price below 155.75. From this level it is possible to look for sell deals with the target of 154.39. However, if the price fixes above 155.75, the road to 156.74 will open for buyers again.

選擇場景:

if the price breaks above the resistance at 158.19, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 2756
• 前一收盤價: 2754
• 過去一天的變化%: -0.07 %

Gold rose above $2,770 per ounce on Friday, hitting its highest level since October, just short of the record high of $2,790, after President Trump called for an immediate cut in interest rates. That boosted gold’s safe-haven appeal, and lower rates made the interest-free precious metal more attractive. Traders continued to rush into safe-haven assets, remaining cautious amid uncertainty over the impact of Trump’s proposed tariffs and immigration policies.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 2762, 2734, 2717, 2703, 2690, 2666, 2655, 2636, 2622, 2603, 2570
• 阻力價位: 2790

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold continues to rise in price. The price has confidently consolidated above 2762 and now the way is open up to 2790. Within the day, pullbacks to the moving averages or to the support level of 2762 are possible. There are no optimal entry points for selling now

選擇場景:

if the price breaks below the support level of 2735, the downtrend will likely resume.